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  Method and system for mapping traffic predictions with respect to telematics and route guidance applicationsUSPTO Application #: 20060293836Title: Method and system for mapping traffic predictions with respect to telematics and route guidance applications Abstract: A method is provided for predicting load of traffic of vehicles that are travelling according to non reference route plan, provided with Dynamic Route Guidance capability of their PMMS, in a Forward Time Interval related Route Segment and according to a predetermined protocol between mobile systems and a non mobile system platform of a SODMS. Using mobile units, a traffic prediction query is receiving according to a predetermined differential traffic load match process. A match process is performed by each of the mobile units and, according to a match, a predetermined response procedure is enabled, wherein a response procedure in each mobile unit uses a predetermined random process to select an allocated slot in which to transmit a predetermined signal, which provides an improved way to predict traffic in conjunction with off line database statistics, preferably with such that are being adaptively corrected by prior data and method to predict traffic which do not include, or lack sufficient erratic traffic information. (end of abstract)
Agent: Pearl Cohen Zedek, LLP Pearl Cohen Zedek Latzer, LLP - New York, NY, US Inventor: Josef Mintz USPTO Applicaton #: 20060293836 - Class: 701117000 (USPTO) Related Patent Categories: Data Processing: Vehicles, Navigation, And Relative Location, Vehicle Control, Guidance, Operation, Or Indication, Traffic Analysis Or Control Of Surface Vehicle The Patent Description & Claims data below is from USPTO Patent Application 20060293836. Brief Patent Description - Full Patent Description - Patent Application Claims
RELATED APPLICATIONS [0001] The present application claims priority of U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/267,693, filed Feb. 9, 2001, U.S. Provisional Applications No. 60/274,323, filed Mar. 8, 2001 and U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/269,083 filed May 7, 2001 which are incorporated by reference. FIELD OF THE INVENTION [0002] This invention relates generally to a method and system for mapping potential traffic loads in forward time intervals, according to various criteria which might indicate erratic traffic, as a result of expected increase in the number of Mobile Telematics Units (MTU) and In-Car Navigation Systems (CNS) users that use Dynamic Route Guidance (DRG). In particular, the method and system aims to provide an efficient means to estimate the potential increase or decrease in the number of vehicles in selected places (inconsistent traffic load), by using a radio system, in order to help in determining levels of a potential erratic behavior in the traffic due to the use of DRG by a significant percentage of vehicles. This system and method may further help to investigate sources of causes of erratic traffic and their level of effect, including the use of traffic information and reactions of drivers to telematics applications. This could help to improve traffic predictions for the use of traffic control and DRG. In particular, this method provides the ability to make use of a mapping system platform which has the capability to allocate pre-assigned slots or groups of slots for the detection of signal responses from mobiles that have probe response capability. The above identified system is mainly characterized by the ability of the mobiles to select time/frequency slots for response signals according to a mapping system query and according to a predetermined protocol. The detection of mobile transmission signals is mainly characterized by energy detection of mobile transmitted signals in allocated slots and hence there is no need for a repeat in mobile transmission as a result of signal collisions in the same slot. The non mobile platform of such a mapping system, which may be referred to hereinafter as Slot Oriented Discrimination Mapping System (SODMS), or as otherwise referred to, as well as the mobile (probe) response capability are described in U.S. applications Ser. Nos. 09/945,257 and 09/998,061 filed Nov. 30, 2001 and PCT/IB00/00239 and their own references. DESCRIPTION OF RELATED ART [0003] For example PCT publication WO 96/14586, published 17 May 1996, the disclosure of which is incorporated herein by reference, describes, inter alia, a system for mapping of vehicles in congestion. In one embodiment applicable to the mapping system platform, described in the above publication, a central station broadcasts a call to the vehicles which requests for example those vehicles which are stopped or which have an average velocity below a given value to broadcast a signal indicative of their position. Such signals are broadcast in slots, each of which represent one bit (yes or no) which relates to a position. Preferably, only one logical slot (that may be represented by more than one actual slot) is used to define the related position. Such signals are then used to generate a map of those regions for which traffic is delayed or otherwise moving slowly. [0004] In the above-identified prior art, the possible construction of consistent traffic database for possible use with traffic predictions have been described. Such database could be constructed by traffic mapping of queues, when quasi-stationary (temporary stationary) statistics of traffic flow in a mapped road, at certain periods of time of a day, and for days in which traffic conditions, are considered to be repetitive. Such collected information, e.g., average arrival rates, could be used as off line database to predict traffic in conjunction with real time updates of mapped queues using statistical methods known in the art. By using the mapping method in this embodiment for mapping the potential effects of erratic traffic, either when produced as part of the current traffic mapping application of the mapping system platform (described by the above identified prior art) or by a separate platform with similar communication capabilities, it is possible to update the consistent traffic database by incorporating inconsistent traffic predictions. BACKGROUND TO THE INVENTION [0005] The expected increase in the number of Telematics applications by MTUs used with off-board or on-board route guidance as well as the increase in the number of CNS users would increase the percentage of vehicles that would use Dynamic Route Guidance and would hence result in unpredicted changes in traffic load which has the potential to cause erratic traffic. [0006] Traditional traffic predictions could use a database of consistent traffic in order to predict traffic according to expected traffic loads, possibly also according to prior knowledge about the behavior of the traffic and the current conditions of traffic. However DRG effects on traffic might mostly be unpredictable by such a database. This could be the result even though there is a priori information about off board DRG (routs plans provided by common service centers), since deviations in the schedule of routes and possible use of alternative routes could in a short time make prior knowledge to become irrelevant to traffic prediction. Thus it would be valuable to have a means to update a traffic database that would be used in conjunction with consistent traffic information and possibly with other prior knowledge including current traffic information in order to improve the capability to predict potential changes in traffic. [0007] Consistent Traffic is defined as such traffic that has a repetitive characteristic, with respect to specific time periods and places, (e.g. certain hour in a certain day of the week in a certain road). Consistent Traffic is a result of behavior patterns that from a statistical point of view usually and in general may be characterized. Such traffic characteristics may be stored in an off-line data base which may contribute to traffic predictions. [0008] Inconsistent Traffic is defined as such traffic that has a non repetitive and erratic characteristic with respect to specific time periods and places. Such traffic may for example be the result of the ability by the individual driver to change routes according to current traffic loads. As the number of drivers that have access to detailed information on currently changing traffic increases, and as the number of drivers that possess in-car sophisticated capability to individually vary their previous route plans, and the less coordination if any exists amongst various drivers, the more inconsistent would become such traffic. Inconsistent Traffic is difficult if at all possible to be characterized on a statistical basis. Such traffic tends to be in general unpredictable, and leads to unpredictable traffic loads. [0009] The inconsistent traffic is expected to become a significant issue in the control of the traffic when a significant percentage of cars will be using dynamic route guidance and as a result might probably, in themselves cause unexpected traffic loads at certain places that would affect the traffic and reduce the efficiency of dynamic route guidance. Traffic information used with Dynamic Route Guidance (DRG) could be one reason for the inconsistency in the traffic due to changes in planned routes, while driver preferences, deviation from schedule, or reaction to local based services could be other causes for an inconsistency in the conditions of the traffic. [0010] One general approach to resolve the problem of predicting inconsistent traffic is to centralize the control of the individual driver routes. This is not the approach which is considered in the following embodiment of the invention as it leads to centralized DRG which has many disadvantages beside feasibility problems with large scale implementation. [0011] As further explained, apart from the contribution of traffic predictions of inconsistent traffic to traffic control the predictions could further lead to a relatively low cost implementation of an anonymous predictive DRG approach based on distributed intelligence of the in car computers and also to contribute to the implementation of more efficient telematics applications. [0012] Predictions for inconsistent traffic is based on a process of traffic load estimation for predetermined place and time interval, (for example, estimating the number of vehicles that use in-car navigation computers which are expected to pass in a certain road in a certain forward time interval). However when the source of such information is limited to car navigation units that use dynamic route guidance only, and the estimation process is the only means for such predictions, it would be required that most of the cars should use car navigation systems. In practice such a situation would doubtfully be viable. However, the situation when a significant percentage of vehicular systems would most probably be using Dynamic Route Guidance (DRG) may be considered realistic in the not too distant future, and hence inconsistent traffic would begin to appear at an early stage, whereas reliable traffic prediction for this situation would not yet be available. With the lack of traffic predictions, the problems that would be encountered at such stages could lead to a significant dilemma by the individual drivers, about the efficiency of Dynamic Route Guidance. The dilemma would be whether to consider recommended DRG according to current traffic, while ignoring unpredictable traffic that might result due to the significant number of DRG users, or ignoring the recommended DRG. For such early stages of inconsistent traffic the following embodiment suggests a modified method of traffic predictions in order to enable reliable prediction at such early stages. Traffic load predictions would preferably refer mostly to sensitive roads that encounter recurrent traffic jams. SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION [0013] The present invention provides a preferred method and system for differential mapping of potential traffic loads in forward time intervals in selected places, which could be a result of DRG, in order to provide rapid and effective means for traffic prediction. The mapping system, in which slots are allocated to probe responses, and mobile units that are equipped with route guidance with probe response capability in allocated slots, could be used as a platform for the following modified prediction method. The mobile unit would be referred to as Potential Mobile Mapping System (PMMS). The route guidance capability of a PMMS could be based on either on board or off board route guidance. The prediction method described in the following could be implemented with such platforms, either with or without the implementation of the application of mapping of current traffic as part of this platform. The non mobile part of the mapping system (non mobile systems), including the radio system and the mapping system, will be referred to as the non mobile system platform. All applicable terms used in the above identified prior art, in connection with traffic mapping, and which are applicable and would contribute to the implementation of the following embodiment of the invention, will hold also for this application. [0014] The aim of the differential mapping method for determining potential traffic loads is to update a traffic information database with information about deviation from expected traffic loads in forward time intervals for selected road segments in order to enable more accurate and prediction capability of the use of a traffic information database. Based on the inherent limitations of the database prediction capability (before deviation updates), prediction criteria are formulated and could be transmitted by means of the non mobile platform to the PMMS units. Such criteria are intended to enable the prediction of expected potential deviations from schedule and previously planned routes, at the level of the database requirements. The PMMS units could determine if they match the transmitted criteria, and if a match exists, would respond accordingly. This could also be considered as a method to improve accuracy levels of information in database that could help to predict traffic according to pre-investigation of local potential loads affected by DRG in selected forward time intervals. The level of basic information in such database could for example include consistent traffic, or higher level prediction capabilities. [0015] For example, if the use of the database is based on prediction capabilities according to consistent traffic, then cars that change their planned route according to traffic information, most probably from the shortest route according to time and distance to one that most probably is shortest according to time, or other dynamic preference, could be used to indicate on possibly expected inconsistent traffic that is not taken into account within consistent traffic statistics. Thus it would be worth to first isolate this group of cars in order to estimate their contribution to the inconsistent traffic loads in specific road segments. Preferably, this information would then be taken into account in conjunction with a database of consistent traffic statistics, preferably updated with current real time updates of traffic, to determine current and predicted traffic information that would be currently updated accordingly. The isolation process would use prediction queries that would selectively target cars that made a change to their route or deviated from schedule, according to traffic information or other predetermined possible reasons such as a response of drivers to a telematics application. The queries determine the response criteria which will include but not be limited to the following--a) vehicles that are planning to pass in a certain road at a certain forward time interval according to their modified route plan or schedule, and which did not plan to do so according to a reference route (e.g., a default route or any other route that could be referred by the PMMS as a reference that may be determined according to criteria as part of a predetermined protocol), and b) vehicles that did plan to pass in this road according to the reference route, and are not planning to do so according to the modified route plan or schedule , at the above forward time interval. [0016] Vehicles which are using their reference (e.g. default) route will not respond to queries. [0017] Criteria for determining whether a route is within reference conditions (e.g., default) or not, could be provided from a common external source, which considers the investigated level of possible effect on the traffic statistics. The reference (e.g., default) route information may be formed either in the in-car (on board) systems, or received from external (off board) sources, and would preferably be determined by route plan and schedule. Thus, according to a predetermined protocol, a deviation in route or schedule would exclude the route from being referred to as a reference route and would determine it to be a non reference route. The protocol would preferably include threshold levels of deviation. [0018] Typical default routes are such which could be considered but not limited to conform with consistent traffic. Default routes could be determined according to common criteria (e.g. the shortest route, preferably with time schedules), for mobile units participating in the following processes. Non default routes are such that have some significant effect on known traffic statistics as a result of deviation from schedule or from original route plan that could be considered as default routes. [0019] The in-car system will incorporate a predetermined decision procedure, described in the following. Continue reading... Full patent description for Method and system for mapping traffic predictions with respect to telematics and route guidance applications Brief Patent Description - Full Patent Description - Patent Application Claims Click on the above for other options relating to this Method and system for mapping traffic predictions with respect to telematics and route guidance applications patent application. ###  How KEYWORD MONITOR works... a FREE service from FreshPatents1. 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